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Sunday, March 28, 2010

Bracketology Is Not Your Friend...A Point Gets Lost...You're With Me, Lacedarius


Butler, Duke, West Virginia and Michigan State. Four basketball programs that have fought through adversity, relied on guts, raw talent and intelligence to power through this year's NCAA tournament to reach the Final Four platform in Indianapolis. They are schools that carry with them history and legacies. For Butler, it's the fact that their very own basketball arena was used in the movie Hoosiers, for Duke it's Coach K and the plethora of players that have made pit stops through Durham before reaching the NBA, for West Virginia....well...umm...okay, well...Bob Huggins used to coach Cincinnati when they had Kenyon Martin and Ruben Patterson, so there's that and Michigan State has Tom Izzo, who has by and large been the best coach in college basketball over the last fifteen years.

Great schools, right? Great matchups, yes? Well guess what, I didn't pick any of them to be in my Final Four. You know why? Because I'm just not smart enough to understand why some underdogs win and some lose. I'd like to think that I called the Kentucky loss (I said, over and over that the only way they'd go down is if they got down by more than 10 and panicked, which is exactly what they did, West Virginia's maturity down the stretch was just too overwhelming), but really, that was a total fucking fluke. I had those bastards going to the championship game anyways. The same with Ohio State, Syracuse and Villanova, all of whom bit the dust harder than a death metal band taking a swim in wet cement. Murray State winning? Nope. Cornell? Nope. I think perhaps what the problem really comes down to is that there are just too many goddamn teams. How am I supposed to keep track of every team in the field throughout an entire season? I have a hard enough time keeping up with the Buckeyes and the Big Ten.

You'll say, of course, that picking the tourney correctly comes down to luck anyways, and you'll proceed to tell me the story of some friend of a friend's girlfriend who picked the teams based solely on mascot cuteness and won five thousand bucks, but you and I both know that's a heap of bullshit, there has to be some math involved, right? I mean, Kentucky picking apart Cornell was not the end of a string of luck for the Ivy League underdogs, it was a vastly better team talent wise completely exploiting the other team's complete lack of talent. Kentucky would beat Cornell 100 times out of 100, I am convinced of this fact. I guess that's why the mid-seeded match ups are the hardest to pick. You can't pit a Murray State against a Duke and hope for an upset nearly as much as picking a Butler over a Syracuse. Of course, Northern Iowa and Ohio University negate this fact simply because they beat two amazing programs in Georgetown and Kansas, but really, you're going to tell me that Kansas and G'Town don't hold the majority of that responsibility? OU beats G'Town then plays Tennessee and gets creamed, Northern Iowa knocks out Kansas then goes ahead and gets beat by Michigan State.

Shrug...I'm ranting, I know this, there is no direct point and no real thesis here.

All I'm saying, really, is that next year, instead of doing a crash course in each team's stats and match up possibilities, I'm just going to make my picks based solely on the names of the high scorers on each team. Lord knows if I would have done that this year I would have had Lacedarius Dunn and Baylor going much further than the first round.

Enjoy the Final Four everyone, I'm calling a West Virginia and Michigan State championship, but don't quote me on that.

-Terrence Adams

And Now An Educated Look at the Big Ten Expansion


If you follow collegiate athletics you are probably acutely aware of the Big Ten’s plans for expansion within the next year to year and a half. If you do not care, you should. The Big Ten is on the verge of fundamentally changing the collegiate football landscape. To understand how all of this will impact the entire league, we first have to understand what the Big Ten is. First and foremost, the Big Ten is the wealthiest conference in terms of television revenue—raking in $242M last year and dividing that evenly amongst all conference members for $22M each. Next, all conference members are affiliated with the Association of American Universities. Membership in this group essentially means you are one of the leading universities in the nation in terms of research. The Committee on Institutional Cooperation is an organization with nearly $6B in research funds available to its members—which all of the Big Ten schools belong to. Academically, all of the Big Ten universities are ranked. All of the Big Ten schools exceed 20,000 in enrollment with the exception of Northwestern—who has one of the largest endowments in the nation with their sub 10,000 enrollment. It is not all about academics in the Big Ten. Every school in the Big Ten has enjoyed at least 1 NCAA athletic championship and several of the most prestigious athletic schools in the country belong to the Big Ten. What is the profile of the Big Ten? Essentially, all Big Ten universities are flagship, Midwestern schools that not only excel in academics and research but athletics as well.

Why does all of this matter? Money alone would warrant any school in the country to seriously consider Big Ten membership. So it is not a stretch to say that if the Big Ten wants you, you will probably want them back. It has been discussed by the Big Ten to add as many as 5 schools. If you really start to think about it, it becomes difficult to find schools that fit the profile. Schools like Cincinnati, Louisville, and West Virginia are laughable. Not only do they have very little to offer the Big Ten, but they strike out in almost every category of the Big Ten profile. More likely candidates include Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Missouri, Syracuse, and Notre Dame. The relationship between the Big Ten and Notre Dame is strenuous to say the least so it is difficult to estimate if the Big Ten will consider them or if they will consider the Big Ten in return. Now you get to more interesting candidates as well: Texas and Nebraska. The theme here: whatever the Big Ten does it is likely not going to be in their own backyard so the conference footprint is about to expand dramatically. Part of this is intentional as more television markets will warrant more revenue for the conference.

Virtually all of these teams are a part of some kind of scenario that has been speculated. In the case of Texas, there is speculation that Texas A&M would have to come along if the state legislature would approve the move. The Big East, with fewer than 9 schools already could not withstand more than 1 school leaving the conference. All of this talk about plucking teams from the Big 12 as well has gotten the PAC-10 considering a similar move. Candidates for them have included Texas schools, Colorado, and some Mountain West universities. Now stop for a second and consider all of this. Two of the most storied and prestigious conferences are considering expanding to 16 teams. The ACC, SEC, and Big 12 all have at least 12 members now. It seems likely that dramatic shifts for the Big 12 and Big East could potentially murder their conference prestige. At the end of the day, we could be left with only 4 relevant, super conferences. Not only would this bust the BCS, it would likely redefine the football divisions as we know them. We are entering a period that will completely alter collegiate athletics as we know them, where schools travel greater distance to compete and can make more money by cutting out the smaller universities. For now, the ball is in the Big Ten’s hands and everyone else is waiting to make their move.

-Anthony Moran